2009 Chinook projections better, but not good; Klamath River forecast healthier than Sacramento

Spring 2009 report on fish status in Northern California.

Expect 2009 ocean salmon numbers to be poor to fair according to the Pacific Fishery Management Council's salmon abundance forecast released last week.

As we all know by now, the region of the ocean south of Cape Falcon near Nehalem, Oregon, and down through Northern California are populated from salmon returning to the Sacramento and Klamath rivers.

In 2008 there was an unprecedented collapse of the large Sacramento River stock that caused the complete closure of these fisheries for the first time in history.

In 2009 the forecast is for another very poor return of Sacramento fall Chinook, but a healthy return of Klamath River fall Chinook.

The 2009 forecast for Sacramento River fall Chinook is 122,196 absent any fishing, which is at the bottom end of the spawning escapement goal range of 122,000-180,000 adult natural spawning and hatchery fish. The 2009 forecast compares to the 2008 forecast of 54,600. While roughly more than twice the abundance of last year's unprecedented low, this would be the third lowest return since 1992.

Klamath River fall Chinook are forecast to be at a level of 81,000 fish prior to any fishing, compared to a natural spawner floor of 35,000 and a goal of 41,700 to produce the maximum sustainable number of fish.

Spawning escapement is the number of fish returning to spawn after harvest and other removals from the population. The spawning escapement goal is sometimes called the "conservation objective."

Salmon are anadromous, which means they hatch in rivers, creeks and hatcheries, migrate to the ocean for several years, and then return to the rivers of their birth to spawn.

Most Sacramento River fall Chinook live to be about three years old, but there is a significant four year component in some years. Some of the fish return to the rivers as two-year-olds and five-year-olds. Sacramento fall Chinook of catchable age this year were spawned in 2005 and 2006 and migrated to the ocean in 2006-2007.

As recently as 2002, some 768,000 adults returned to spawn in the Sacramento River. The average catch in commercial and sport fisheries south of Cape Falcon supported by the stock and known in those years as the "workhorse stock" was almost 600,000 fish from 1983 to 2006.

In 2008 the forecast of poor Sacramento returns led to the largest fishery closure on record. That year, adult spawning escapement for Sacramento River fall Chinook failed to meet the escapement goal for the second time in 16 years. The forecast for 2008 was for less than 60,000 spawners, while the actual return turned out to be about 66,000.

"The forecast was remarkably accurate, particularly given the unprecedented nature of the situation," said PFMC Executive Director Donald McIssac.

Klamath River returns were well below forecast levels in 2008 with 31,000 naturally-spawning adults, which were below the 35,000 minimum escapement floor and the 40,700 management objective for 2008. However, 20,300 jacks returned to the river in 2008 – one of the top two jack counts since 1986.

The reason for the sudden collapse of the Sacramento fall Chinook stock in 2007 and 2008 is not readily apparent, although both natural and hatchery-produced fish have been similarly affected. The Council requested a multi-agency task force led by the National Marine Fisheries Service's West Coast Science Centers to research about 45 possible reasons for the collapse. A draft report of the research results will be presented at the Council's April 4-9, 2009, meeting in Millbrae, CA.

Timeline for decision

The PFMC will review stock size projections and set harvest levels this spring. At the Council's March 7-13 meeting in Seattle, the Council will develop a range of management options. Salmon management discussions begin on March 8 when the Council will review 2008 salmon fisheries and discuss stock abundance estimates. The PFMC will tentatively adopt a range of salmon management measures for analysis by technical teams and scientists on March 9 and discussions will continue through March 12. On Thursday, March 12, the Council is scheduled to adopt up to three fishing season options for public review.

Public hearings to receive input on the options are scheduled for March 30 in Westport, WA and Coos Bay and for March 31 in Eureka, CA.

The Council will consult with scientists, hear public comment and revise preliminary decisions until it chooses a final option at its meeting during the week of April 5 in Millbrae, CA. The single season recommendation will be forwarded to the National Marine Fisheries Service for its final approval before May 1.

Economic impact

In 2008, a Federal Fishery Disaster was declared due to the collapse of the Sacramento River fall Chinook stock. Congress appropriated $170 million in aid. To date, the Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission has distributed about $110 million to fishing businesses in Oregon, California and Washington.

The commercial and recreational salmon fishery had an average economic impact to communities in 2003-2007 of $66 million of which $38 million was in the commercial fishery and $28 million in the recreational fishery. In 2008 communities earned just $6.9 million as a result of the closure.

The impact to the Rogue River is not yet known. The Rogue usually fares much better than other coastal rivers such as the Chetco and Sixes. Jurisdiction over the Rogue lies with the Oregon Department of Fish & Wildlife and not the federal government.