Report: Global warming costs coming soon

A 119-page analysis released this week says coping with a warmer climate -- decreasing water supplies, rising sea levels and retreating glaciers -- could cost Washington state's economy tens of millions of dollars by midcentury. Although the report focuses on Washington, officials said that Oregon also would face a similar spendy outcome. Both states are dependent on long-lasting winter snowpack for hydropower, irrigation, drinking water, recreation and wild salmon runs.

Rising temperatures are beginning to eat into the Northwest's economy, a trend that will accelerate in the next few decades if global warming continues as predicted.

A 119-page analysis released this week says coping with a warmer climate -- decreasing water supplies, rising sea levels and retreating glaciers -- could cost Washington state's economy tens of millions of dollars by midcentury.

Although the report focuses on Washington, officials said that Oregon also would face a similar spendy outcome. Both states are dependent on long-lasting winter snowpack for hydropower, irrigation, drinking water, recreation and wild salmon runs.

"The trends are the same," said Bob Doppelt, director of the University of Oregon's Climate Leadership Initiative that led the study. "Among other things, wildfires are increasing and farmers are finding less water in many areas."

Doppelt brought together Washington state scientists and economists to examine what is known about the region's climate and what they project could occur by the 2040s.

The report does not give a total cost of climate impact, and it doesn't offer policy recommendations. But officials with the Washington agencies that requested the study -- the Ecology Department and the Community, Trade and Economic Development Department -- said the report can be used by local and state policymakers to prepare for and respond to climate impacts.

The analysis summarizes recent findings by climate scientists, including:

The region is expected to warm about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit every 10 years for the next few decades -- a rate more than three times faster than the warming experienced during the 20th century.

Glaciers in the North Cascades have lost 18 percent to 32 percent of their volume since 1983.

Snowpack in the North Cascades has declined at 73 percent of the mountain sites studied.

Large wildfires are increasing, with Washington state's blazes increasing from an average of six per year in the 1970s to 21 annually since the turn of the century.

The report estimates that federal and state costs for fighting Washington wildfires "may exceed $75 million per year by the 2020s, 50 percent higher than what is now being spent." The cost could double by the 2040s.

Water conservation efforts to offset the decline in Seattle's water supply could exceed $8 million annually by the 2020s and $16 million a year by the 2040s, according to the report.

Although a warmer climate would have positive benefits for agriculture -- such as a longer growing season -- water shortages could cause major crop losses. Farmers also would face an increase in weeds, pests and crop diseases.

"Water availability is the primary concern of both Washington and Oregon," said Janice Adair, a climate official with Washington's Ecology Department. "Disputes over water rights and other water issues already are highly controversial, and it's not going to get any better if you have smaller snowpacks and warmer summer temperatures."

Other economic impacts cited by the report include rising public health costs caused by increases in asthma and West Nile virus cases; a decline in timber sales; a drop in tourism; and a sea-level rise of as much as 5 inches a decade that could inundate parts of Puget Sound's southern shoreline.

The study said climate change would help create economic opportunities, such as developing industries and markets that would make transportation and energy use more efficient.

Doppelt said he would like to make a similar detailed economic assessment for Oregon if funding becomes available. The Washington report's $100,000 cost was split between the state and the Energy Foundation, a coalition of organizations involved in environmental issues.

Gail Achterman, director of the Institute for Natural Resources at Oregon State University, said such an economic assessment would be valuable for Oregon. "But we first need more specific information from scientists about how Oregon will be affected," she said. "We need the kinds of detailed research that has been done in California and Washington."

Doppelt and Achterman are on the 20-member Governor's Climate Change Integration Group, which is examining what steps Oregon can take to prepare for and adapt to a warming climate.

Ned Dempsey, the group's co-chair and president of Century West Engineering, said the report -- expected to be out in December -- will include an economic assessment.

"We'll take a close look at this Washington economy report," Dempsey said. "We're going to be discussing several business opportunities that are available in dealing with climate change. It's an aspect of discussions about global warming that is really starting to get on the radar screen."